By TheNuts - Jan 20, 2026
Google to allow prediction market ads as of January 21st
Beginning on January 21st, Google will "reclassify" the prediction market as a financial product instead of
gambling and allow advertising in the United States.
The tech giant will allow advertisements for the prediction market for federally regulated businesses under the new policy, which it defines as "platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events."
Advertisers must be approved by the National Futures Association (NFA) as a brokerage providing third-party access to products listed by a DCM, or by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract market (DCM) for a specialized platform listing economic or sports outcomes.
A Google representative affirmed that this action had nothing to do with the company's recent collaboration with Kalshi and Polymarket. The Alphabet-owned business included information from the online betting sites into its financial tools as part of this arrangement.
Users may now query GDP growth, election odds, and other event outcomes using its AI-powered features, such as search.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket asserted at the time that activity on their platforms should be governed like commodities rather than being subject to state gaming laws since they are only "event contracts."
"The commercialization of Google's partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket last year is represented by the reclassification of prediction markets as financial instruments rather than gambling products," Thomas Ives, co-founder of RAAS Lab, told SBC Americas.
Google confirmed that people want this information by including real-time odds into its finance and search functions. This is in line with social media activity and American culture. These vendors are now able to compete for that attention.
Ives stated, "This update is a potential green light for prediction markets to potentially outpace traditional
sportsbooks in growth," noting that they are frequently seen as a "cleaner alternative to gambling."
"Prediction market advertisements should be able to be run nationally, avoiding the state-by-state compliance patchwork that standard gambling brands must go through, as it falls under CFTC jurisdiction."
Google acknowledged in the policy update that in order to run targeted advertisements in the United States, advertisers need to apply for certification. In addition to local laws, financial regulations, and industry standards, all advertisements, products, and landing pages must adhere to other Google Ads policies.
It informed advertisers that a separate application is needed for each region and that advertisements could only be targeted in authorized jurisdictions.
Additionally, the firm clarified that Nevada is not covered by this new policy. Nevada is now embroiled in legal conflicts with prediction market platforms, and Kalshi is facing a court order to remove the state from its sports offering.
Advertising is also prohibited on unregulated platforms, such as those that provide advisory services (like Underdog) or tokenized forecasts (like Jupiter or Polymarket's global site).
According to Ives, this could lead to the prediction industry expanding outside of the United States.Although peer-to-peer betting has been experimented with in the UK, there isn't currently a local predictions market. But major international players like Allwyn are already considering this market, and Google expanding the ad inventory will help to further legitimize it.
"Ultimately, the success of these advertisements will depend on creative relevancy. Instead of using the traditional gambling strategy of pushing odds next to sports-related material, the ad could function as an extension of its media, such as a 'interest rate' prediction campaign next to a relevant FT story. This will drive results and help to raise awareness of the predictions market's offerings among a wider audience."