By TheNuts - Mar 19, 2026
March Madness 2026 betting is projected to reach $3.3 billion
The American Gaming Association estimates that more than $3.3 billion will be wagered by Americans at state-regulated
sportsbooks during March Madness.
The forecast is around 6% higher than the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments from the previous year, indicating that March Madness betting may be slowing down following years of explosive growth.
According to data gathered by the AGA from state gaming regulators, betting on the NCAA tournaments through regulated sportsbooks has increased by about 54% over the previous three years.
A smaller growth this year would be consistent with more general industry trends, as LSR analysis shows that handle in current markets decreased 3.4% year over year from December to January compared to rising 8.7% during the same period last year.
The NCAA tournament usually generates more overall wagering due to its multi-week schedule and hundreds of games, even if the Super Bowl is still the biggest single betting event in the United States. The estimated $3.3 billion wagered on March Madness would be almost twice as much as the Super Bowl wager this year.
"During one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar, fans continue to engage with legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers," AGA president and CEO Bill Miller said in a statement.
The estimate takes into account bets made through authorized sportsbooks that now provide legal betting markets in 40 states as well as Washington, D.C. Money risked through unofficial office bracket pools and activity on prediction market exchanges are not included.
The total amount involved in March Madness betting may be much larger when prediction market activity is taken into account.
The tournament may bring in more than $530 million in prediction-market trade volume, according to research firm H2 Gambling Capital.
Last year, trade related to the men's and women's tournaments totaled over $409.4 million and $91.8 million, respectively, according to Kalshi, one of the biggest platforms in that field.
Nevertheless, those numbers cannot be directly compared to the totals of sportsbook wagers. While sportsbooks report handle, which only shows the amount staked by bettors, trading volume counts both sides of a contract. On a prediction market, for instance, a user purchasing a 10-cent contract would represent $1 of trading volume, whereas a $10 wager at a sportsbook would represent $10 of handle.
Kalshi's market for the men's NCAA tournament champion saw over $60 million in trade activity as of Monday morning, which was close to the market's final total of $75.4 million from the previous year.
The men's tournament favorite at Caesars Sportsbook was Duke (+295), followed by Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), and Florida (+650). In the women's division, the reigning champion UConn (-280) started as a clear favorite, ahead of Texas (+700) and UCLA (+500).
According to Patrick Berbert, a college basketball trader at Caesars, "we anticipate a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season." "The gap between the best programs and the rest of the field has really widened during the NIL era."
With all four of the top seeds making it to the Final Four, last year's tournament generated one of the most favoritism-heavy brackets in history. As multi-leg parlays linked to favorites continued to make money, this result led to reduced sportsbook margins.
Sportsbooks may retain around 7% of wagers throughout this year's tournament, up from roughly 6.1% last year, according to H2 Gambling Capital. Sportsbook margins can fluctuate based on whether favorites advance or underdogs shatter brackets because March Madness betting sometimes involves multi-game parlays.
The growing difference between the top-seeded and lower-seeded teams is also reflected in the point spreads for this year's competition. For the first time since the NCAA tournament was expanded to 64 teams, all four No. 5 seeds started as at least eight-point favorites over No. 12 seeds.